The reasons why Donald Trump can emerge victorious in the presidential election of the United States in 2024. Even though he has been impeached twice as president of the United States and is currently facing four criminal charges, Donald Trump continues to be a well-liked figure. Listed below are four reasons why he has a chance of winning the election in November 2024 against the current Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
There is a high probability that Donald Trump will once again be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party. Polls indicate that Donald Trump has a better-than-even chance of retaking the presidency this year, presuming that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for president in the October election.
However, he has been impeached twice, and it is believed that he attempted to disrupt the peaceful transition of power after losing the presidential election in 2020, he is facing dozens of accusations in different criminal cases, and his detractors are warning that he is scheming to govern as an autocrat.
Trump has made a stunning recovery for a one-term president who seemed to be vanquished and humiliated three years ago, according to the most recent survey of Republican voters conducted by Reuters and Ipsos. Trump is now leading his competitors for the Republican presidential nomination by about 40 percentage points. He has entered a plea of not guilty in the criminal cases that have been brought against him and has stated that they are politically motivated.
He is also getting closer to securing the Republican nomination, thanks to a landslide victory in Iowa, the first Republican nominating state, on January 15. This victory prompted one of his few remaining competitors, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, to withdraw from the race, leaving only Nikki Haley, a former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, to compete against Trump.
There are four reasons why Donald Trump has a better chance of winning the election in November 2024 than the current Democratic candidate Joe Biden:
There has been a decline in inflation from a peak of over nine percent in June 2022 to 3.4 percent as of December, according to the Biden White House, which asserts that the economy is in good health. The jobless rate has dropped to a near-historic low of 3.7 percent, which is a significant decrease from the 6.3 percent seen when Trump left office.
The opposite is held by a significant portion of the population, which includes a significant number of voters of color and young people. Specifically, they point to the fact that salaries are not keeping up with the rising costs of necessary products and services such as food, automobiles, homes, and care for children and the elderly.
When Biden discusses the economy, the first thing that comes to the minds of Americans is not economic indicators but rather affordability. Polls of public opinion indicate that a significant majority of Americans believe that Republicans are better stewards of the economy, despite the fact that Trump has only provided hazy statements of his policies.
Concerns among voter’s stem from a variety of factors that go well beyond the state of the economy. Trump addresses the concerns, whether they are justified or not, that a significant number of white Americans have on account of the fact that the United States is becoming more culturally progressive and diverse.
In addition, there is a prevalent feeling of losing ground, which is that the fundamental aspects of American life, such as house ownership, a fair pay that keeps pace with inflation, and a college degree, are becoming increasingly out of reach for a significant number of people. According to polls, Americans are concerned about criminal activity and anxious about the influx of migrants sneaking across the border between the United States and Mexico.
Trump is particularly skilled at channeling and packaging such worries, all the while maintaining the appearance that he is someone who comes from outside the political system in the United States. In addition to being a fireman, he is also an arsonist. He says that the nation is in a state of anarchy and then presents himself as a Savior.
Some members of his own party, the Democratic Party, and members of the media are of the opinion that he is unsuited for government; nevertheless, millions of people are of the opposite opinion.
On the contrary, a significant number of his fans have come to the conclusion that Trump is the target of a political witch hunt. Reuters/Ipsos conducted a study earlier this year with Republicans, and at least half of those Republicans said that they would not have any difficulty voting for Trump even if he were to be found guilty of a crime.
It is also possible for Trump to point to his four years in office and say that the machinery of government essentially functioned, albeit at times in a chaotic manner. This is despite the fact that there were worries that he was unable to manage and that the most serious charges against him, such as his coordination with Russia, were never substantiated.
As an additional advantage, Trump may take advantage of a White House that has, up to this point, been unable to convince a significant portion of the general public that the job-creation initiatives implemented by Biden — which include significant government investments in infrastructure, clean energy, and chip manufacturing — have made a positive impact on their lives.
A couple of overseas wars that have caused division among Americans have also been a burden for Vice President Joe Biden. In contrast to Biden, who retains a more conventional and interventionist approach to American foreign policy, Trump’s rhetoric of “America first” and non-interventionism may appeal with Americans who are concerned about the United States’ continued participation in Ukraine or Israel.
All of this, of course, does not guarantee that Trump will emerge victorious in the election.
He continues to be extremely unpopular in many regions of the country and across a wide range of demographics, and if he is selected as the nominee for his party, it may result in a significant increase in the number of people voting for Democrats in order to challenge him.
His harsh speech, which includes promises to seek revenge on political foes whom he refers to as “vermin,” may also be a turnoff for more moderate Republicans and independent voters, who he will need to win the election against Biden.
Additionally, Democrats have successfully campaigned as protectors of abortion rights in order to defeat Republicans across the country in a succession of elections, and they will once again make this issue the focal point of their campaign in 2024.
Ten months from the day of the election, however, Trump is currently in a position where he has a higher chance of returning to the White House than he has at any other time since he left office.