The election for the presidency of the United States of America in 2024 is scheduled to take place on November 5th, 2024. It has been forecast by polls of both Democratic and Republican voters that the main election will put the incumbent Democratic president, Joe Biden (2021–), against the former Republican president, Donald Trump (2017–21), who was defeated by Biden in his attempt for reelection in the United States presidential election of 2020.
Background: 2024’s unusual election status
Almost immediately following the midterm elections for the United States Congress, which took place in November 2022, Donald Trump made the announcement that he would be running for the Republican nomination for president in 2024. Since then, he has been by far the most popular presidential candidate among Republican voters.
The indictment of Donald Trump in 2023 on multiple state and federal criminal charges, including those related to business fraud in connection with a hush-money payment to an adult-film star, to Trump’s retention and concealment of classified documents after leaving the White House, and to his various efforts to overturn the presidential election of 2020, rendered the Republican presidential race, and most likely the presidential election itself, historically unprecedented. Both of these events occurred in 2023.
In no other presidential election in the history of the United States, the leading candidate or nominee of either of the two major parties—the Republican or the Democrat—has ever been charged with a criminal offense.
According to indictments filed by the federal government and state governments, Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election included his participation in a conspiracy to create fraudulent slates of pro-Trump electors in certain swing states and his pressure on Georgia’s secretary of state to “find” enough votes to belatedly declare Trump the winner of the election in that state.
Additionally, in a lawsuit that was filed by the New York attorney general’s office, Trump and his private conglomerate, the Trump Organization, were found to be liable on civil charges of business fraud. Additionally, in two separate lawsuits that were filed by the writer E. Jean Carroll, Trump was found to be liable on civil charges of sexual abuse and defamation.
As a result of the fact that the subsequent trials in three of the criminal cases were slated to commence in March and May 2024, which was the height of the primary season, it is quite probable that Trump would be required to restrict or at the very least coordinate his campaign events in order to accommodate his appearances in court. (For more information, see the indictments against Donald Trump.)
Presidency of the United States of America, election of 2024
In the event that Trump were to win the presidential election in 2024, a conviction on any of the accusations would not prevent him from taking office nor would it compel him to step down from his leadership position. Assuming if Trump were to emerge victorious in the election and take office before to the conclusion of either of the two trials on federal charges, it is likely that he would instruct the Department of Justice to drop the charges that have been brought against him.
Both the question of whether or not Trump could be imprisoned after being inaugurated as president and the question of whether or not he could be inaugurated while serving a prison sentence are less evident. Further, it is not clear if Trump, in his capacity as president, would have the authority to grant himself a pardon. (Even if the answer to the previous question is yes, Trump would not be able to get his convictions on state counts overturned if he were to be found guilty of any of those crimes.)
Candidates as well as issues
In April of 2023, Biden made public his intention to run for reelection. The American Rescue Plan Act (2021), the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (2021), and the Inflation Reduction Act (2022) were three of the legislative accomplishments that were highlighted during his campaign.
His administration was successful in restoring economic growth and significantly reducing unemployment from the high levels that were reached during the recession that was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, his campaign also highlighted the legislative achievements of the Democrats.
In his campaign appearances, Vice President Biden accuses Republicans of having plans to significantly reduce Social Security and Medicare, condemns restrictions on voting rights that have been adopted in states that are controlled by Republicans (see voter suppression), criticizes efforts by Republican state governments to limit the rights of members of the LGBTQ community, and pledges to codify the right to abortion in the wake of the United States Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade (1973) in 2022 (see Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization).
Inflation, which included increases in gas prices, remained a persistent problem, which eventually led the Federal Reserve, which is the country’s central bank, to impose an extended series of interest-rate increases.
This was in part due to the fact that the economy of the country grew at such a rapid pace during the first years of Biden’s presidency (in 2021, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.7 percent, which was the highest annual rate in 37 years).
Concerns over inflation contributed to a general sense that Biden was mismanaging the economy, which in turn maintained his public approval rating exceptionally low—less than fifty percent—during the majority of his first two years in office. This was the case despite the fact that pay rises and a significant reduction in unemployment were also factors.